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FNUS38 KWNS 222155

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0453 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025



VALID TIME 241200Z - 301200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 222155

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025



Valid 241200Z - 301200Z



Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a

broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued

lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest

and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather

potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor

dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially

critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended

forecast period.



...Southwest and Great Basin...

As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and

breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High

Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels,

fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into

the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected

each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher

probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future

outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently

appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main

trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and

intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This

suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this

time.



Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy

conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels

have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are

likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for

elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible,

uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of

probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve.



...Southeastern US...

Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to

the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next

week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the

Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively

low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought

and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat 

into the weekend.



..Lyons.. 04/22/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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