####018002013#### FNUS22 KWNS 251948 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$