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FNUS21 KWNS 281649

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025



Valid 281700Z - 291200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR

WESTERN TRANS-PECOS...



...Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests

at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across

the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial

advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not

expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the

southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in

some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated

highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.



...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains...

Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative

humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire

weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface

lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds

across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were

extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation

has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity

falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon.



..Williams.. 04/28/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/



...Synopsis...

Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt

of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern

Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee

trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. 



...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos...

West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air

mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of

enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure

gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee

trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15

percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High

Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph

sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will

promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over

southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with

elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$