####018000388####
FNUS38 KWNS 012203

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0501 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025



VALID TIME 031200Z - 091200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D4     32240951 33040812 33160757 32990686 32220665 31720666

       31740812 31300811 31351011 32240951 32240951

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####018001655####
FNUS28 KWNS 012203

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025



Valid 031200Z - 091200Z



An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will

bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire

weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday,

possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the

base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated

to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona

and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day

4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico

where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong

south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary

layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds

and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough

but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the

higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical

probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is

expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will

mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and

New Mexico.



...Florida...

A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the

Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days

4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short

term.



..Williams.. 05/01/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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