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FNUS21 KWNS 021702

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025



Valid 021700Z - 031200Z



Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions

of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across

central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it

appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for

wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad

swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible.



..Thornton.. 05/02/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the

Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm

risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico.

Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the

southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the

next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep

mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by

the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak

convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep,

well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT

values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry

thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought

guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM

to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the

dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with

RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather

conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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