####018002313####
FNUS22 KWNS 030649

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

...Southwest...

Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of

southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast

Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off

the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48

hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across

the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow

over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered

thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a

plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will

overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows

very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with

15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days

(10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values

generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ.

Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north

of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of

wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire

threat with northward and eastward extent.



...Northern Plains...

The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on

Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the

central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the

western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will

result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally

critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas

and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in

the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours

has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will

continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels

can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours.



..Moore.. 05/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$