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FNUS22 KWNS 040709

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on

Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface

low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also

possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts

of southern New Mexico.



...West Texas...

The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift

east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains

by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25

mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern

Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the

teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer

mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res

guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with

localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th

to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. 



...New Mexico...

Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the

surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An

influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud

cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to

some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best

potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides

along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope

warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally

drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this

outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and

potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this

corridor.



...Red River Valley of the North...

Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday

afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited

moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH

minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated

conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to

D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the

afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will

continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance

trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival.



..Moore.. 05/04/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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