####018001854####
FNUS21 KWNS 050653

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern

Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across

parts of southwest TX this afternoon. 



...Red River Valley of the North...

Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a

southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating

and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across

eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance

suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to

promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and

receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity

over the past two days).



...Southwest Texas...

06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing

dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio

Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late

afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC

EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values

in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon

across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with

breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire

weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile

along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although

thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM

guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the

Elevated risk area.



..Moore.. 05/05/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$