####018002692#### FNUS21 KWNS 081649 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$