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FNUS21 KWNS 100710

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...Synopsis...

Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today

and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists

farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop

of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening

a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty

southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US.



...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens,

southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and

western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of

low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been

mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall.

With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear

likely.



In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based

storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT

Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though

enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best

storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a

few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where

fuels could support some ignition potential.



...Southwest...

Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly

mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert

Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are

possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent

precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along

with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.



..Lyons.. 05/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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