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FNUS22 KWNS 101934

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST

NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...



Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday

across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and

western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25

mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens

for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support

rapid fire spread should a fire start. 



Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast

to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be

as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support

fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity

(increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel

moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes

hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread.



..Marsh.. 05/10/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/



...Synopsis...

Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as

strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A

lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over

much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions

persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will

support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential

over the Plains Sunday.



...Northern Plains and Midwest...

As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow

aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad

surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over

much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph,

winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal.

Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support

widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas

to western MN and parts of IA.



Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds

interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several

hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of

western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread

sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values.

No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent

outlooks with updated guidance.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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