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FNUS22 KWNS 111953

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...Southwest...

An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a

deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across

southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain

relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of

elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected

winds across south-central Arizona for Monday.



...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest...

A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC

values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather

conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record

setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected

across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most

likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central

Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat

inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued

uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time.



..Williams.. 05/11/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/



...Synopsis...

The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to

breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western

US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as

upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis

will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains.

Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and

Southwest Monday afternoon and evening.



...Northern Plains and Midwest...

Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper

trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the

western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected

across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However,

RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected

northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While

still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical.

This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical

conditions Monday afternoon.



...Southwest...

As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level

flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and

Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern

AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%,

several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within

dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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