####018002181####
FNUS28 KWNS 112139

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025



Valid 131200Z - 191200Z



A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming

week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day

3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day

7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by

early next week (Day 8/Sunday). 



A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds

ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to

continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent

above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day

3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity

from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld

Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and

associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will

provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread

precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. 



An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a

well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to

Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for

Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given

latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and

localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona

and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability

was introduced.



Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early

next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the

week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have

undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next

trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some

uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical

probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest.



..Williams.. 05/11/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000388####
FNUS38 KWNS 112139

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0437 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025



VALID TIME 131200Z - 191200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     32741014 33480752 33300588 32030530 31180585 31720653

       31730809 31270814 31301120 31511174 32741014

&&