####018002978#### FNUS21 KWNS 121657 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$