####018000379####
FNUS38 KWNS 122157

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0456 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025



VALID TIME 141200Z - 201200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     32490847 33420598 32780450 31840466 31330606 31660659

       31650810 31240815 31270971 32490847

&&

####018002309####
FNUS28 KWNS 122157

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025



Valid 141200Z - 201200Z



An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday

will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day

6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the

Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains

and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift

northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday.

Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering

the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing

more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest.



...Upper-Midwest...

A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20

mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions

across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow

from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical

thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler

air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. 



...Southwest...

A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of

Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will

be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to

fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the

upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph

west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on

Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to

far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from

latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no

appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday

before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast

uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and

arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical

probabilities for the weekend time frame for now.



..Williams.. 05/12/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$