####018002852####
FNUS21 KWNS 131645

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025



Valid 131700Z - 141200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...



The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were

expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern

New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological

conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance

keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears

windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations.

Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are

around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the

Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico

remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the

Elevated.



The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with

this outlook. See previous discussion for more information.



..Thornton.. 05/13/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/



...Synopsis...

Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as

upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee

low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions

across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall

and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface

winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected.



...Northern Plains...

Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of

the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee

low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead

of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25

mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the

afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture

advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry

fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated

to critical conditions appear likely.



...Southwest...

The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move

eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest

and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep,

dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty

west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels

continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western

NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather

conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$