####018002253####
FNUS21 KWNS 140656

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0156 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AZ AND SOUTHERN

NM...



...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen as it

moves eastward over the central US. A lee low and dryline will

strengthen over the Plains, supporting dry and breezy conditions

over much of the western and central CONUS. While strong southerly

winds are also possible ahead of the deepening surface low,

returning surface moisture and precipitation chances are also

expected, complicating some fire-weather potential. Critical

fire-weather conditions appear most likely over parts of the

Southwest.



...Southwest...

Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the ejecting upper-trough

will support westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph across parts of

the Southwest this afternoon and evening. A very dry surface pattern

is expected to continue with above normal temperatures and little

recent rainfall. This should support widespread RH below 15%. With

sufficient fuels in place, and additional drying expected, several

hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over

southeastern AZ into southern NM and west TX.



...Central and Northern Plains...

A strong lee low with a trailing dryline will gradually deepen as

the upper trough begins to move over the Plains. Dry downslope flow

is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper

Midwest behind the strengthening dryline. With RH minimums below 30%

and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be

possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas and western

MN. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not

expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given past

rainfall and additional rain through the period. Increasing surface

moisture may also limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a

more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather

conditions expected.



..Lyons.. 05/14/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001867####
FNUS22 KWNS 140658

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0157 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...Synopsis...

The upper trough over the western US will eject quickly eastward

spreading strong mid-level flow atop the central Plains. A powerful

lee cyclone will intensify further as it move into the Upper

Midwest. A cold front and tailing dryline may support precipitation

across parts of the Plains and Midwest States. Otherwise, dry and

breezy conditions behind these features will favor some fire-weather

risk.



...Southwest...

Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest

Thursday. This will support another day of dry and windy conditions

across parts of eastern AZ and southern NM. RH below 20% and winds

of 15-20% amidst dry fuels will support widespread elevated to

locally critical conditions. Some fire-weather risk may also extend

into West TX behind an eastward mixing dryline. However, winds here

may be somewhat weaker despite very warm surface temperatures and

lower humidity. Locally elevated conditions are possible within

drying fuels.



...Central Plains...

As the strong surface low continues to deepen and shift eastward

over the northern Plains and Midwest, a cold front will approach the

central Plains Thursday/Thursday night. This could support some dry

and breezy conditions behind the front within receptive fuels.

Westerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 25% could support elevated

fire-weather conditions. However, some potential for rainfall in the

preceding days may temporarily limit fuels. The relatively confined

area and uncertainties on precipitation will preclude any highlights

for now.



..Lyons.. 05/14/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$