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FNUS21 KWNS 141652

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1152 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025



Valid 141700Z - 151200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL

NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...



Despite cooler temperatures behind a cold front moving through New

Mexico, a very dry post frontal air mass along with strong southwest

winds will support Critical fire weather conditions across portions

of central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas through

today. Latest model guidance consensus shows a corridor of sustained

southwest winds of 25-35 mph from southwest New Mexico with

downslope wind enhancement extending into leeward sides of the

Sandia-Manzano and Sacramento Mountains. These winds combined with

drying fuels and relative humidity dropping into the 10-15 percent

range this afternoon supported a slight northeastward extension of

Critical highlights into east-central New Mexico.



..Williams.. 05/14/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025/



...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen as it

moves eastward over the central US. A lee low and dryline will

strengthen over the Plains, supporting dry and breezy conditions

over much of the western and central CONUS. While strong southerly

winds are also possible ahead of the deepening surface low,

returning surface moisture and precipitation chances are also

expected, complicating some fire-weather potential. Critical

fire-weather conditions appear most likely over parts of the

Southwest.



...Southwest...

Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the ejecting upper-trough

will support westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph across parts of

the Southwest this afternoon and evening. A very dry surface pattern

is expected to continue with above normal temperatures and little

recent rainfall. This should support widespread RH below 15%. With

sufficient fuels in place, and additional drying expected, several

hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over

southeastern AZ into southern NM and west TX.



...Central and Northern Plains...

A strong lee low with a trailing dryline will gradually deepen as

the upper trough begins to move over the Plains. Dry downslope flow

is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper

Midwest behind the strengthening dryline. With RH minimums below 30%

and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be

possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas and western

MN. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not

expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given past

rainfall and additional rain through the period. Increasing surface

moisture may also limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a

more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather

conditions expected.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$