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FNUS21 KWNS 151637

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1137 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025



Valid 151700Z - 161200Z



Cooler temperatures and lighter boundary layer winds will mitigate

fire weather concerns across southeastern Arizona today,

necessitating a slight pullback in Elevated highlights. Stronger

mid-level winds and efficient mixing will continue to support an

elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico into far

west Texas. Downslope/leeward enhancement of surface winds should 

also occur across the High Plains of northeastern New Mexico.



..Williams.. 05/15/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/



...Synopsis...

An upper trough will quickly move eastward over the central US with

accompanying strong mid-level flow. A deepening lee cyclone will

intensify further as it move into the Upper Midwest tonight. As the

low deepens, a Pacific cold front and tailing dryline will move

quickly through the Rockies, into the Plains and Midwest States.

Cooler temperatures, gusty westerly winds and some precipitation are

possible along and behind the front through tonight. Elevated

fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern

Plains and Southwest.



...Southwest...

Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest today

and tonight as a weak pacific front moves over the Rockies. This

will support another day of dry and windy conditions across parts of

eastern AZ and southern NM. Despite somewhat cooler temperatures

behind the front, downsloping  and deep vertical mixing will support

RH below 20% and winds of 15-20% amidst dry fuels. Widespread

elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Some

fire-weather risk may also extend into West TX behind an eastward

mixing dryline. However, winds here may be somewhat weaker despite

very warm surface temperatures and lower humidity. Locally elevated

conditions are possible within drying fuels.



...Central plains and Midwest...

Gusty westerly winds are possible behind the advancing cold front

from parts of the central Plains into western IA and MO this

afternoon. While gusts may reach 20-25 mph, RH values are not

expected to be critical with cooler temperatures. Additionally,

recent wetting rainfall may temporarily limit available fuels. This

suggests any fire-weather concerns will be localized and short

lived.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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