####018001286####
FNUS22 KWNS 160659

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR

SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WEST TEXAS...



...Synopsis...

A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly

speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across

southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee

cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. 



...Southern New Mexico...

Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from

north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope

trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the

enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally,

a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will

contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with

higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit

RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather

conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels.



..Weinman.. 05/16/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001023####
FNUS21 KWNS 160659

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...Synopsis...

Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the

Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge

over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the

midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread

parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent

air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced

flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F,

while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions,

combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with

higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over

areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours.



..Weinman.. 05/16/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$