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FNUS21 KWNS 161528

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1027 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025



Valid 161700Z - 171200Z



The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. 15

UTC surface observations show 20-30 mph winds just ahead and behind

a cold front pushing southeast across the Plains. Recent guidance

continues to suggest localized elevated conditions are likely across

eastern IA into western IL this afternoon (as outlined by the

previous discussion below). More widespread elevated fire weather

conditions are probable across KS and parts of the southern High

Plains where RH in the 20-30% range and 15-25 mph winds are likely;

however, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near/below

the 50th percentile (which is supported by a lack of large fire

activity in recent days and regional web cams that show extensive

green up across KS), which should modulate the overall fire weather

threat.



..Moore.. 05/16/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/



...Synopsis...

Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the

Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge

over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the

midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread

parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent

air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced

flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F,

while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions,

combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with

higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over

areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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