####018002517####
FNUS28 KWNS 102118

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025



Valid 121200Z - 181200Z



An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected

across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast

period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end

critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely.



...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains...

A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly

flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day

3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline

and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical

fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a

highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the

West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions

across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical

conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for

Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central

High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap

of strong surface winds and low RH. 



...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... 

In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt

west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and

central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over

the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a

related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with

gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens

RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly

dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical

conditions can be expected. 



...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains...

On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing

midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring

another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial

differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast

confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support

continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with

critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday).



..Weinman.. 03/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001135####
FNUS38 KWNS 102118

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0416 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025



VALID TIME 121200Z - 181200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     29050282 28880325 29470448 29990477 30520480 31600439

       33470455 34140443 34620389 34790332 34670258 34869962

       34759888 34259845 32069807 30759778 29699809 28329914

       27649986 29060082 29650152 29620255 29050282

D4     31690714 32000715 33290529 35180409 35600358 35600275

       35130198 32960208 31490324 30760427 30580507 31640652

       31690714

D5     37100022 37309831 36959645 36569532 35789498 34549525

       33129598 31699727 29919896 29130087 29630149 29660258

       28840292 28870334 29450445 30360501 31060570 31510567

       32010531 33440498 34110479 35290433 36180311 36530225

       37100022

D6     29800471 30090450 31800416 33310384 33610314 33560267

       33180164 32920097 32269855 31559798 30869799 29689867

       29300009 29230101 29680152 29680264 28870287 28780331

       29800471

&&