####018001099#### FNUS38 KWNS 112112 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025 VALID TIME 131200Z - 191200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 31660716 32080709 33270528 35170457 36010372 36160305 35930250 34790186 33220167 32520201 30740341 30410437 30420494 31660655 31660716 D3 37350190 38660220 39520236 41610227 42290202 42940142 43050069 42950017 42589961 41559952 39669963 38449986 37420027 37240103 37350190 D4 29440453 30540517 31320574 31990528 34010486 35270433 36080321 36520237 37229958 37469861 38639707 38779643 38709579 38189499 37419464 36209473 34689522 33019598 30469826 29779918 29170058 29160098 29600139 29660256 28830302 28860347 29440453 D5 28810321 29410447 29830464 30200449 33380385 33520332 33560264 32980116 32329860 31559800 30849794 29409859 28889926 28639995 28710062 29150090 29590144 29760249 28950290 28810321 && ####018002943#### FNUS28 KWNS 112112 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$