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FNUS22 KWNS 130700

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST

TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with

a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains

tomorrow (Friday)---



A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak

will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon,

supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over

Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the

boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very

strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem

with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will

support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern

High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very

dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry

fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for

several hours Friday afternoon.



...Southern Plains...

By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central

Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the

dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph

sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become

common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of

Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical

highlights have been introduced.



Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly

surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern

Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet

max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface

winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at

least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile

combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may

promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire

outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful

rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH

only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the

anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous

wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely

Critical highlights.



..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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