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FNUS22 KWNS 131959

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS

PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF

OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO

EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND

SOUTHWEST IOWA...



---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains---





Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions

of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of

35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas,

particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen

wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level

jet streak. 



Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain

across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest

forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri

and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by

Friday evening. 



Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for

eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far

northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to

0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms,

particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast

storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating

precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions.

Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake

of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. 



Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes,

sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity

around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above

typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions,

the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present

on the landscape supports and Elevated area.



..Bentley.. 03/13/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/



...Synopsis...

---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with

a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains

tomorrow (Friday)---



A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak

will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon,

supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over

Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the

boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very

strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem

with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will

support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern

High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very

dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry

fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for

several hours Friday afternoon.



...Southern Plains...

By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central

Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the

dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph

sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become

common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of

Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical

highlights have been introduced.



Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly

surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern

Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet

max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface

winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at

least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile

combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may

promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire

outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful

rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH

only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the

anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous

wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely

Critical highlights.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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