####018002644####
FNUS28 KWNS 132132

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025



Valid 151200Z - 211200Z



A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern

Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead

to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across

portions of the Southern Plains.



...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains...

A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern

Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not

expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer

should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the

surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the

Edwards Plateau. 



In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the

central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough

with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support

strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of

15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible

across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and

the northeast TX Panhandle.



...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...

Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow

strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching

mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather

conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst

winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak

overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the

surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across

eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant

concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical

fire weather conditions.



...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains...

Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the

southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for

some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern

continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the

southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the

EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite

these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee

troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities.



..Bentley.. 03/13/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001081####
FNUS38 KWNS 132132

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0431 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025



VALID TIME 151200Z - 211200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     29829703 28629705 28099732 27419809 27259884 27419965

       28110030 29040088 29770177 29670250 28940297 28840322

       29390431 29800469 31130437 32400446 32850425 33110397

       33200349 32550210 32299898 31849809 31019725 29829703

D5     28840021 28780062 29380109 29660152 29750218 29700248

       29640258 29320279 28970292 28930313 28960343 29080366

       29170396 29400424 29970439 30990451 32060461 32840465

       34840468 36220412 36480303 36210000 35479909 34669889

       33889869 32989888 30839954 29519981 28840021

D6     31690810 32130808 33760710 34640606 36180403 37210301

       38190183 39060027 39099930 37679863 35169943 33819942

       30520207 29730220 29670260 29270283 28970298 28920330

       29410439 29590460 30570503 30950559 31690653 31690810

&&