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FNUS21 KWNS 150600

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO

THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the

southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident

in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a

broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and

the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into

central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens

over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both

the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. 



....Southern Texas...

Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph

across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a

mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum

boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and

possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with

daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the

teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the

region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected

with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the

middle/lower TX Coastal Plain.



...Central Plains...

Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall

have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the

past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel

status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid

the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite

an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime

heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble

guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph

winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25

mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall

was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the

Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received

lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the

fire weather concern.



..Moore.. 03/15/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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