####018000973####
FNUS38 KWNS 152116

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0414 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025



VALID TIME 171200Z - 231200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     28840021 28780062 29380109 29660152 29750218 29700248

       29640258 29320279 28970292 28930313 28960343 29080366

       29170396 29400424 29970439 30990451 32060461 32840465

       34880467 36430390 36740347 37100290 37640189 37740071

       37709973 37129888 35479909 34669889 33889869 32989888

       30839954 29519981 28840021

D4     31690810 32130808 33760710 34640606 36190398 36710370

       37280350 37670332 38640285 39040234 39300178 39400106

       39410007 39099930 37679863 35269944 34249877 33609869

       32889885 31459939 30420054 29810144 29730220 29670260

       29270283 28970298 28920330 29410439 29590460 30570503

       30950559 31690653 31690810

&&

####018002763####
FNUS28 KWNS 152116

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025



Valid 171200Z - 231200Z



An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the

central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple

days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely

Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across

the southern Plains.



...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains...

Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3

Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the

southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage

surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north

and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical

probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward

into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast

guidance. 



Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely

Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into

the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme

fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be

extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was

stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is

some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday

afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will

shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further

east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may

remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of

the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward.

This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent

probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and

western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. 



...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains...

Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated

fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas

Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. 



Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions

look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late

D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 -

Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the

central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the

surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now.



..Thornton.. 03/15/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$