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FNUS22 KWNS 161248

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains

on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the

central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the

northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains

through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass

response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central

Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded

moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow

expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into

the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH

reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the

60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday

afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and

western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained

winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest

across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH

reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into

the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low

will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While

weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire

weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. 



Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded

east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the

typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these

regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than

otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the

east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent

precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will

be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel

trends.



..Moore.. 03/16/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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