####018000964####
FNUS38 KWNS 162154

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0452 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2025



VALID TIME 181200Z - 241200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     31690810 32130808 33760710 34640606 36190398 36710370

       37280350 38650283 39020236 39310176 39390116 39400003

       39119882 38709676 37989587 36709560 36299562 34069663

       33359712 32449782 31559850 30809907 30209975 29600055

       29370099 29810144 29730220 29670260 29270283 28970298

       28920330 29410439 29590460 30570503 30950559 31690653

       31690810

D6     30530496 32090481 33030430 33750353 35200289 35480265

       36260175 37260035 37499946 37349831 36959764 36279738

       35449751 34339772 33239802 32659873 32009953 31330047

       30850133 30380189 30000282 29790354 29750408 29760436

       29830456 29860465 30380494 30530496

&&

####018003051####
FNUS28 KWNS 162154

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025



Valid 181200Z - 241200Z



An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the

central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple

days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely

Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across

the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns

is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains.



...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains...

Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday,

with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this

occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday

afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the

eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which

has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities

eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as

north-central Texas. 



Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New

Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and

central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in

this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the

last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread.

Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid

sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous

conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will

mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative

humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and

ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to

southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and

Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire

behavior near any ongoing fires.



...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains...

Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated

fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas

Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. 



Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions

look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late

D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow

aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface

low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40

percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western

Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for

development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is

possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 -

Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning.



..Thornton.. 03/16/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$