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FNUS21 KWNS 171647

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



Valid 171700Z - 181200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

HIGH PLAINS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA...



The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas.



...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska...

Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high

terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western

Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and

early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical

conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this

update.



...Florida Peninsula...

Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the

Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive

wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in

combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25

mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread.

Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such

a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this

outlook.



..Thornton.. 03/17/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/



...Synopsis...

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today

across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More

localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the

Florida Peninsula. 



...Southern to central Plains...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east

towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern

Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee

troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past

12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through

the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and

a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously

strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the

10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a

surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level

mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO

River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow

regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal

intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore.

Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of

the southern to central Plains. 



Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25

sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central

Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX

through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The

meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree

of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in

widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across

eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further

north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central

CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either

recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the

past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week.

Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad

swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely

across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in

close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions

and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern.

Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from

eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK.



...Florida...

Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of

the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the

wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a

surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of

dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote

areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC

values between the 70-90th percentile.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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