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FNUS21 KWNS 190604

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025



Valid 191200Z - 201200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN

TEXAS...



...Synopsis...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the

southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain

critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather

concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05

UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the

central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast

over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the

lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions

are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern

Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low

within a dry return flow regime. 



...Southern Plains...

Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX,

OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime.

Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in

closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a

belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is

expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling

temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH

reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier

air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values

between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is

expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande

Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is

greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient

critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions

are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front;

however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional

highlights.



...Upper OH River Valley...

As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15

mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley.

Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a

narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited

moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with

downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of

elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be

greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over

the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area.



..Moore.. 03/19/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$