####018004623#### FNUS21 KWNS 201656 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$