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FNUS38 KWNS 212143

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0441 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2025



VALID TIME 231200Z - 291200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 212143

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0441 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025



Valid 231200Z - 291200Z



...Synopsis...

A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Central

Plains and Midwest D3/Sunday. Thereafter, the synoptic pattern will

become fairly persistent with a long-wave trough encompassing the

eastern half of CONUS, and ridging present over the Rockies and

Southwest.



...Central and Southern Plains...

A deepening surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest is expected to

accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough D3/Sunday. An

associated tightening pressure gradient across the Central and

Northern Great Plains will support breezy west-northwest surface

winds there, while a cold front dives south in the lee of the

Rockies into the Southern Plains. Although RH will likely remain

just above critical thresholds within a cooler air mass, these areas

continue to remain unseasonably dry with receptive fuels for fire

ignition and spread present. Therefore, two low probability areas

for critical fire weather conditions have been introduced from

western NE/northern KS, and western OK/northwestern TX.



By D4/Monday a surface high over the Missouri River Valley will

migrate slowly southward, shunting low-level moisture to the Gulf

coast. Meanwhile, lee troughing will commence across the High Plains

with accompanying southerly surface winds developing within dry

antecedent conditions over western OK. A 40% area has been

introduced here for D4/Monday, as projected ERC percentile estimates

continue to indicate receptive fuel states across this region.

Another cold front will result in breezy northwest winds developing

across the Central Plains (NE) D5/Tuesday, and although a cooler air

mass should keep relative humidity from falling into critical

limits, deteriorating fuel conditions are anticipated given a lack

of rainfall.



After early next week, rainfall probabilities will begin to increase

across most of the CONUS along frontal boundaries and in association

with a southern stream Pacific shortwave trough entering the

Southern Plains. This should limit the overall potential for

significant fire weather concerns.



..Barnes/Williams.. 03/21/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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