####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 232004

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0302 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025



VALID TIME 251200Z - 311200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&

####018002267####
FNUS28 KWNS 232004

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025



Valid 251200Z - 311200Z



A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS 

on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the

western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday.

Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will

accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge,

overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter,

guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter

the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central

Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However,

medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday,

resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the

second trough evolution.



...D5/Thursday...

The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return

flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of

New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no

probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range

from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support

continued drying of fuels.



...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday...

Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across

portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level

trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving

mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable

disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall

pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time

frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of

potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas

on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been

introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the

most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later

outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain.



..Karstens.. 03/23/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$