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FNUS22 KWNS 252000

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...Appalachians...

An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue

Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope

flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with

sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts).

Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a

local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the

larger Elevated area. 



...New Mexico and vicinity...

A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry

Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains

valid. See the previous discussion below for more details.



..Dean.. 03/25/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/



...Synopsis...

Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as

a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the

ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest

moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry

thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest.



...Parts of NM...

As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest

ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to

widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to

western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values

less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and

mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor

precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over

very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection

that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across

western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential

and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed.



...Appalachians...

Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern

Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with

downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas.

While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15

mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition,

afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows

considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of

any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours

of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but

uncertain.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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