####018002605#### FNUS21 KWNS 090619 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018001365#### FNUS22 KWNS 090619 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$