####018000487#### FNUS38 KWNS 262054 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025 VALID TIME 281200Z - 031200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D4 31340889 31690882 32500848 33180766 33520695 33890345 33760233 33270167 32640158 32020183 31570224 31260325 31110432 31210468 31460501 31620553 31740645 31750818 31330818 31340889 && ####018003348#### FNUS28 KWNS 262054 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$