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FNUS21 KWNS 281632

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1131 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Valid 281700Z - 291200Z



The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to

add Elevated highlights to the lee of the central Appalachians.

Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended slightly stronger

with surface flow, where southwesterly surface winds may sustain

over 15 mph in spots amid 20-35 percent RH. Current observations

show mostly clear skies, with RH already dropping to 30 percent amid

20 mph gusts in spots, and these conditions should only be

exacerbated with continued diurnal heating. Given the presence of

abnormally dry/receptive fuels, the addition of Elevated highlights

appears warranted.



Elevated highlights were also expanded slightly eastward into the

southern High Plains, where the latest guidance consensus depicts

15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20

percent RH for several hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous

forecast for the southern High Plains, central Plains, and Florida

(see below) remains on track.



..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/



...Synopsis...

A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while

an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate

west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across

the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the

strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy

west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO.

As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions

are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread

the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough

deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough,

downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to

dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated

fire-weather conditions are expected.



Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the

FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive

surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of

west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the

breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather

conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern

Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy

southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support

localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however,

marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall

large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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