####018002585####
FNUS22 KWNS 311941

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW

MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made

to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest

guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear

likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more

persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with

relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical

highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous

wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the

southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon.



..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/



...Synopsis...

Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the

West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will

overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In

response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the

central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens

over the southern High Plains. 



...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast

Arizona...

West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level

clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will

yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F

temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a

tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the

strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained

west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors

will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the

potential for rapid spread of wildfires. 



While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the

northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical

meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower

teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or

marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for

such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern

portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too

localized for an upgrade at this time.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$