####018002055####
FNUS21 KWNS 011658

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025



Valid 011700Z - 021200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW

MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes

made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon

despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH

values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph

west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much

of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area

this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus.



..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/



...Synopsis...

Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the

West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge

on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee

cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains,

while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High

Plains.



...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High

Plains...

West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal

heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area)

will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an

axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend

northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same

time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening

surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will

contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds

(with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an

expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical

conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$