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FNUS21 KWNS 021648

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025



Valid 021700Z - 031200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO

INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS...



A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High

Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values

primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected

to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains

region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing

should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover

expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle

this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical

thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock

area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this

area. 



Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure

gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over

western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire

weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in

this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on

track.



..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/



...Synopsis...

A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500

mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains --

within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the

West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected

over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend.



...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains...

The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a

post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to

around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a

modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong

flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained

west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This

combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across

southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper

boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast

NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly

weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the

fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$