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FNUS38 KWNS 042149

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0447 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2025



VALID TIME 061200Z - 121200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 042149

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025



Valid 061200Z - 121200Z



An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves

over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will

slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula

on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the

Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with

lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of

the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast,

including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level

trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the

region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow

over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for

downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The

southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the

outlook period. 



...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula...

A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the

Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching

the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire

weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions

cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall

amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day

5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid

to late next week. 



Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching

cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day

3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical

thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and

farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South

Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary.



..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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