####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 252142

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0439 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025



VALID TIME 271200Z - 021200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002202####
FNUS28 KWNS 252142

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0439 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025



Valid 271200Z - 021200Z



Weak upper lows are likely to move north through the northwestern US

on Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday as the upper-level ridge

continues to retreat southeastward. The location and strength of

these upper lows will be somewhat dependent on the convection

occurring today and tomorrow, but monsoonal moisture will continue

to push northward across the Northwest and northern Rockies. The

upper-level pattern remains rather quiescent and devoid of major

features across the West until an upper-level trough approaches the

Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Friday. Forecast guidance remains

uncertain regarding the track, timing, and impacts of this

upper-level trough. 



...Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday...

As the weak upper lows drift northward with monsoonal moisture,

isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across

the Northwest and northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent and easterly

flow aloft indicate the potential for storms to move/develop west of

the Cascades. There remains concern that the 10% areas may just have

high-based showers with sporadic, occasional lightning at best,

especially due to the potential cloud cover. PWAT values are likely

to be 0.8-1.1" and some dewpoints will exceed 50F that may mitigate

fire weather concerns. However, given the very receptive fuels and

history of ignitions with thunderstorms on the leading edge of this

monsoonal moisture, the 10% areas were introduced. These may be

refined as more high-resolution forecast guidance and rainfall

footprints from storms today/tomorrow become available.



Monsoonal thunderstorms will continue across much of the

Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday, but drier air will start to

filter in from west to east late this week into the weekend. This

will reduce chances and coverage of thunderstorms in California,

Northwest, and portions of the Great Basin and lower RH.



..Nauslar.. 08/25/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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