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FNUS22 KWNS 121730

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE

HIGH PLAINS...



Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona,

New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central

Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona

was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward

expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was

made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with

the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast

remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail.



..Halbert.. 04/12/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/



...Synopsis...

As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday,

some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies.

A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper

Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move

through the northern/central Plains.



...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas...

With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on

Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again

reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common.

Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona,

southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South

Plains.



...Nebraska...

Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will

tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope

component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon.

Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during

the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this

pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in

mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast.

RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is

possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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