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FNUS22 KWNS 141934

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in

eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of

the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the

region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with

a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions

across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New

Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited

surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A

very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from

virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the

marginal convective environment.



..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/



...Synopsis...

A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A

weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest.

Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast

through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon

with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it.



...Southwest...

How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact

extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New

Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope

regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH.

West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be

favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will

lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of

15-20% will be possible.



...Piedmont/Blue Ridge...

RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest

downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will

potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent

rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will

be added at this time.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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