####018013633#### FNUS86 KLOX 012215 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 ECC029-021615- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... A deep upper level trough approaching the West Coast will bring strong onshore winds to the region Friday through Sunday. Widespread gusts between 35 to 45 mph are expected along the coastline, elevated terrain, and Salinas Valley. Gusts between 35 to 45 mph are expected across the interior. Isolated gusts up to 50 mph are expected for coastal areas and where terrain promotes wind funneling (for example, the San Bruno Gap). Drizzle is possible Friday morning and again Saturday but is not expected to meet wetting rain criteria. There is some potential for breezy offshore winds to develop across the North Bay interior Mountains on Monday before winds ease heading into Tuesday. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$ ECC028-021615- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$ ECC031-021615- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$ ECC024-021615- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$ ECC032-021615- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$ ECC030-021615- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 315 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 A weak low pressure system moving to the south of the region has kicked off some scattered showers across the mountains and interior valleys across Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County, along with some cumulus clouds over the San Gabriel Mountains. The 20 to 30 percent chance of showers will persist through this evening for all interior mountains. With any storms, there is the potential for heavy downpour, lighting, gusty winds, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be under 0.1 inches for most areas, and 0.5 inches across the mountains and foothills. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates have the chance to exceed 1 inch per hour. There is a 5 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars that are away from the coast. Friday afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20 percent), focused over the mountain, especially the Ventura County Mountains and interior Santa Barbara County Mountains. Similar hazards can be expected if any storms form. This weekend a cold low pressure storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (down to as low as 6,000 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Low confidence in details for the precipitation, but high confidence in gusty northwest to southwest winds (possibly Advisory Level and/or Warning level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). A warming and drying trend is expected starting Monday next week. $$