####018013504#### FNUS86 KLOX 030547 FWLLOX FNUS86 KLOX 030547 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 ECC029-040000- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... Onshore winds are expected to strengthen Friday evening into the overnight hours. Strong northwest winds between 40 to 50 mph will develop along the coast early Saturday morning and persist through early Sunday morning with gusts between 30 to 40 mph across the interior. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the coastline from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday. More significant for fire weather concerns, strong offshore winds will develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills late Sunday into Monday. These winds will gust between 35 to 45 mph with the strongest gusts across northern Sonoma and Napa counties. Daytime and overnight RH values will drop into the 30-40% range across much of Napa, northern Sonoma, and the East Bay Hills. Offshore winds will peak during Monday morning before diminishing by late Monday evening. ERC values are forecast to remain near average everywhere except the Mid-Coast to Mendocino zone where ERC values are forecast to rise above normal. Calmer winds will persist Tuesday through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the region. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$ ECC028-040000- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$ ECC031-040000- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$ ECC024-040000- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$ ECC032-040000- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$ ECC030-040000- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 1047 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Through this evening, a weak low pressure system, now to the the southeast of the region, will continue to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and interior valleys, especially for northwestern Ventura County. With significant storms, there is the potential for gusty downdraft winds, heavy downpour, lighting, and hail. Overall rain totals are expected to be highly variable with most areas seeing little to none. However, in a thunderstorm rain rates today may be around 0.5 inch per hour. There is less than 2 percent chance of of minor or shallow debris flows over recent burn scars away from the coast. This weekend another colder storm system is likely to pass just south of the region. This will bring the chance for more widespread showers, high elevation mountain snow (snow levels down to 5,500 to 8,000 feet), and a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Storms will again be focused over the mountains and deserts, and there is overall around a 5 percent risk for minor and shallow debris flows for recent burn scars. High confidence in northwest to southwest wind gusts around 25-45 mph (possibly Advisory Level) across much of the region. Winds will start to build starting Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and last through Sunday. Winds will be the strongest Saturday afternoon through night for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the Central Coast. Through the weekend, humidities will be very elevated, with most areas remaining above 30 percent (except for 15 to 30 percent in the Antelope Valley). There will be a chance for wrap around mositure to bring showers to the northern facing mountains slopes on Monday, and a warming and drying trend is expected for next week. $$