####018006598#### FZAK80 PAFC 122347 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 247 PM AKST Wednesday 12 February 2025 FORECAST VALID...Monday 17 February 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…Moderate to High. SYNOPSIS…High pressure will generally persist across the Beaufort Sea and most of the Chukchi Sea through Monday. Several lows in the North Pacific traverse north into the Bering Sea through the forecast period, spreading low pressure across most of this region. High pressure from the Chukchi Sea is expected to move south across the northern Bering Sea on Sunday and Monday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist through Sunday. Winds may become light and variable on Monday, but it will depend on where a weak low ends up developing across the southern Beaufort Sea. Overall, the ice pack will continue to thicken and generally move southwest through the forecast period. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist across most of the Chukchi Sea through Saturday. Over the southern Chukchi Sea near the Bering Strait, winds will be mostly northerly through Saturday and then northwesterly Sunday and Monday. To the north, the remainder of the Chukchi Sea will see northerly winds Sunday and Monday. Overall, the ice pack will continue to thicken while drifting south to southwest. From tonight through Friday, stronger northeasterly winds along the Cape Lisburne to Icy Cape coastline will make shorefast ice vulnerable to break-off. Polynyas on west- to southwest-facing coastlines will continue to advance through about Saturday, after which time winds become northerly. The northerly winds will promote polynya formation along south-facing coastlines. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- KZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 29’N 164 1’W to near Mekoryuk to 62 11’N 172 1’W to 62 1’N 175 19’W and continues east into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along portions of the northern Bristol Bay coast. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 30 nm south of Kipnuk to near Mekoryuk to 95 nm south of Gambell to 140 nm southwest of Gambell and continues east into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along portions of the northern Bristol Bay coast. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist through Monday. A colder airmass will spread south throughout the forecast period. Overall, the ice pack will thicken while drifting south. The main ice edge retreat will slow/stop, and the ice edge should begin to advance south as the cold air and northerly to northeasterly winds continue. Sea ice is also expected to grow along the northern Bristol Bay coast. Polynyas may form along south-facing coastlines. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS…A series of lows track from the Gulf of Alaska north towards and across the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period. High pressure will linger across northern Alaska and the Beaufort Sea. In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to 59 58’N 152 16’W to near Clam Gulch. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to 15 nm west-northwest of Anchor Point to near Clam Gulch. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist across the Cook Inlet region through Monday. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the forecast period, reaching highs near the 30s and lows near the mid 20s by Saturday. Expect sea ice to continue growing through most of the forecast period, but growth will likely slow through the weekend as temperatures rise. && Fenrich