####018007002#### FZAK80 PAFC 142328 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 228 PM AKST Friday 14 February 2025 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 19 February 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…Moderate to High. SYNOPSIS…High pressure continues over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas through the weekend with increasing easterly flow by early next week. A North Pacific low pushes into the west Bering Sea by Monday, and moves a front across the western and central Bering Sea through next Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Easterly winds will persist through Sunday, becoming light and variable on Monday as a weak low develops across the Beaufort Sea. Overall, the ice pack will continue to thicken and generally move southwest through the forecast period. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will shift to light north on Sunday and gradually increase in strength through Wednesday as a Bering Sea low influences flow in the region. Overall, the ice pack will continue to thicken while drifting south to southwest. By early next week, the stronger north to northeasterly winds along the Cape Lisburne to Icy Cape coastline will make shorefast ice vulnerable to break-off. Polynyas on west- to southwest-facing coastlines will continue to advance. North winds early next week through midweek will promote polynya formation along south-facing coastlines. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 51’N 164 2’W to near Mekoryuk to 62 23’N 171 9’W to 62 3’N 175 44’W and continues east into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along portions of the northern Bristol Bay coast. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 24 nm south of Kipnuk to near Mekoryuk to 64 nm south of Gambell to 134 nm southwest of Gambell and continues east into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along portions of the northern Bristol Bay coast. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate to high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist through Monday. A colder airmass will spread south throughout the forecast period. Overall, the ice pack will thicken while drifting south. The main ice edge retreat will slow/stop, and the ice edge should begin to advance south as the cold air and northerly to northeasterly winds continue. Sea ice is also expected to grow along the northern Bristol Bay coast. Polynyas may form along south-facing coastlines. Stronger east winds will continue across the western Bering Sea through Monday and gradually shift to the north by Tuesday and Wednesday as a front traverses the western and central Bering Sea through the period. Winds across the eastern Bering Sea will be light through Sunday, increasing from the east to northeast on Monday and become light east ahead of a front crossing the Bering Sea though midweek. Overall, the ice pack will thicken while drifting south. The main ice edge retreat will slow/stop, and the ice edge should advance south across the western Bering Sea as the north to northeast winds continue into next week. Polynyas may form along south-facing coastlines. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS…A series of lows track across the southern Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Winds in Cook Inlet will be light northeast over the weekend, with east to northeast flow expected for the beginning of next week as high pressure lingers across northern Alaska and the Beaufort Sea. In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to 60 47’N 151 30’W to near Kalifonsky. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to 5 nm northwest of Kalifonsky. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist across the Cook Inlet through next Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the period, reaching highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s by Wednesday. Expect minimal sea ice growth through the weekend, with some recession likely next week as temperatures warm. && Baker